The $20 Billion Bread Chain; a Large Market Caught in Prescriptive Pricing

Iran’s downstream wheat-based industry — including flour, bread, and pasta — is estimated to be worth around $20–25 billion, yet it remains heavily constrained by price controls, multi-tier pricing, and market disorder, according to industry leaders.

Mortazavi explains that while subsidized flour is sold to bakers at extremely low prices, the final price of bread in some cities can range dramatically from about 18,000 tomans to as high as 200,000 tomans per kilogram, reflecting deep distortions in pricing and a lack of market transparency.

 

He argues that the existence of multiple pricing levels for wheat and flour has created structural instability in the bread market, where similar products are sold at vastly different prices even within the same city. In his view, the government’s focus on keeping bread cheap — without considering quality — has reduced incentives for upgrading production standards, using higher-quality wheat, and expanding industrial baking, ultimately leading to a decline in overall bread quality.

Mr. Mortazavi also notes that the current subsidy system places a heavy financial burden on the state while failing to create an efficient market structure. He believes that reforming pricing policies could transform the sector from a subsidy-dependent system into a competitive, high value-added industry with significantly greater economic potential.