The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine continues to pose a systemic risk to the global wheat market, despite the increased flexibility of export routes and the development of trade mechanisms in recent years. Although in practice, grain exports from these two countries have at times even exceeded pre-war levels, persistent uncertainty around shipping security, port infrastructure, and political decisions has led to the formation of a persistent “risk premium” in global prices.
Geopolitical developments in the energy market and political and economic tensions in countries such as Iran and Venezuela are fueling volatility in the global wheat market through increased transportation costs, rising input prices, and impacting the psychological climate of commodity markets. As a result, the global wheat market in 2026 faces not an acute shortage but a very narrow margin of risk; a situation in which simultaneous disruptions in two or more key exporters could quickly lead to a return to rising prices.
