Russia is not the only source of Iranian corn, and another part of the country’s needs is met from Ukraine and Brazil. In the barley sector, Kazakhstan is another source after Russia that can be counted on. However, with the news of the halt in barley exports from Russia, traders put pressure on the Kazakh market, and the increased influx into the Kazakh market caused the price of barley to reach $250 per ton.
But ultimately, with the cessation of Russian grain exports, we will not see any particular risk, because the required grain will be supplied from other sources. But livestock and poultry factories in the north, northwest, and northeast will have to pay more to supply goods from Brazil.
Currently, the most specific problems in the Russian market are related to supply and demand. Russia has a large volume of grain for export, with barley harvests usually starting in May and June and corn harvests in October and November. However, from November to the end of February, the Volga freezes, which makes demurrage and unloading conditions different from other times.
Usually, the closer we get to harvest, the better time to talk to Russian and Brazilian sellers. The important point is that usually large and bulk purchases are made by the government and we do not have long-term contracts from the private sector. At the same time, a number of suppliers are currently reluctant to sell to state-owned companies, as the two state-owned companies active in the grain and animal feed sectors are making their financial payments late and are not disciplined in paying foreign sellers.
