Analysis of Global Fertilizer Market in the Shock of Persian Gulf War
The ongoing conflict in West Asia has triggered a major shock in global fertilizer markets, threatening agricultural production and food security worldwide. Around 30% of global fertilizer trade and 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas transit through the Strait of Hormuz, making the region a critical hub for fertilizer production and exports. With shipping disruptions and damage to petrochemical infrastructure, global urea prices surged to between $857 and $900 per ton in April 2026 — the highest level since the 2022 food crisis.
Persian Gulf countries including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are among the world’s leading exporters of urea, ammonia, and nitrogen-based fertilizers. The conflict has severely disrupted exports from the region, with reports indicating that only 11 fertilizer vessels have successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz while dozens remain stranded. At the same time, attacks on energy and industrial facilities have sharply reduced fertilizer production capacity across the Persian Gulf.
The fallout is expected to hit fertilizer-importing nations hardest, particularly India, African countries, Bangladesh, and Brazil. Analysts warn that prolonged disruption in Persian Gulf fertilizer exports could reduce global agricultural output, drive food inflation higher, and deepen food insecurity across developing economies.
