Weakening Iran’s role in regional transportation and connecting Central Asia with Europe, and replacing the Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey route
- Negative impact on the North-South Corridor (INSTC) and Tehran-Tabriz-Nakhchivan railway projects
- Directly and geographically connects two rival countries of Iran (Turkey and Azerbaijan). This is important because the two countries are culturally, linguistically, and historically close to each other and are coordinated in foreign policy (e.g., in Karabakh, Syria, Libya), and since 2020, their military, industrial, and transportation cooperation has increased significantly.
- Threat to the security of Iran’s northwestern borders, such that if Azerbaijan and Turkey expand this corridor militarily or structurally in the future (e.g., by establishing military bases, border control, stationing forces), Iranian territory may be directly threatened and the movement of Turkish/Azerbaijani military forces closer to Iran’s borders may increase.
