How will the elimination of Russia’s export quotas impact Iran’s grain market?
Dr. Fatemeh Rezaei, CEO of Salem Khorak Ofogh Company
Regarding the closure of imports from Russia and its effects, she said:
It is predicted that the volume of imported corn and barley will vary with the elimination of Russian export quotas from February 15, 2025. Therefore, it will definitely have a significant impact on the Iranian grain market, and especially on the livestock and poultry industry.
Since Iran’s supply of livestock inputs is highly dependent on the amount and speed of supply from northern ports, it is predicted that the Iranian grain market will face the following challenges by July of next year:
1- Changing the sources of import supply, especially for feed barley and focusing on imports from Kazakhstan and Romania
2- Increasing demand from Iranian importing companies in the remaining days
3- Increasing shipping costs due to the influx of importers in the next two months
4- Transferring corn and feed barley imports to southern Iranian ports more than before
5- Taking over the grain market by a limited number of industry players
6- Increasing the price of Brazilian corn futures contracts in December, January and February due to reduced global supply
7- Decreasing service levels and the loss of some short-term job opportunities in the Caspian Sea region
8- Possibility of increasing chicken prices
The CEO of Salem Khorak Ofogh Company concluded by saying: A careful examination of these issues, replacing sources of supply from Central Asian and South American countries, managing transportation costs, increasing warehouse storage capacity, and diversifying supplier companies will enable the industry to cope with the challenges posed by export restrictions and maintain market stability and the country’s food security during this critical period. In addition, increasing the ministry’s flexibility in adopting policies such as changes in the order registration price ceiling regardless of the unloading date can, to some extent, facilitate the import process in the remaining time.
