War and Inflation Put Dual Pressure on Iran’s Industrial Bread Sector

Bread, one of Iran’s main staple foods, plays a critical role in food security during times of crisis. Yet during the 12-day war and the subsequent 45-day crisis, industrial and semi-industrial bakeries faced a challenge that went beyond flour supply: a shortage of skilled labor.

 

The sector’s strong dependence on skilled workers meant that some production units, which require at least three skilled employees to operate, struggled to maintain normal production.

Flour supplies, meanwhile, were maintained despite disruptions affecting Bank Sepah and online ordering infrastructure. Through measures taken by the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, the Government Trading Corporation of Iran and the Grain Administration, flour was provided to producers on a consignment basis, helping sustain bread production during the crisis.

The experience also highlighted the importance of having a simple and scalable bread model for emergency conditions. Lavash, given its relatively simple production process, high potential for industrial production and widespread consumption, could serve as a strategic option for strengthening food resilience during crises.

At the same time, inflation and rising production costs have reduced consumers’ access to industrial bread products, with sales in the segment declining by 35–40%. The sector’s future will increasingly depend on support for producers, greater use of technology and engaging a younger generation of skilled and creative professionals to drive innovation.