Climate change and politics shake up Iran’s grain market

In the interview, Budarina, referring to severe weather anomalies in Russia, reported a significant decrease in barley exports to Iran. She said: The year 2024 in Russia was marked by severe weather anomalies that had not been experienced in domestic agriculture in the past ten years – unusual frosts in May in many regions, followed by a summer drought, more severe in the southern regions.

In addition, the situation was aggravated by the very high interest rates of the Central Bank and the increase in prices for imported machinery and advanced seeds. As a result, the export of fodder barley from Russia to Iran has significantly decreased since October 2024 due to a lower harvest this season and worse quality parameters, especially the grain nature, compared to the previous year.

“As for fodder corn, the situation was more favorable for Iranian imports,” Budarina noted. “The quality of the crop this season was quite satisfactory for the needs of the Iranian market. The volume of the harvested crop was sufficient for both the domestic market and for export to Iran. However, demand for fodder corn from Iran decreased in December due to reports of overloading of Iran’s northern ports on the Caspian Sea. However, given the imminent six-month halt in corn exports from Russia after February 15th, it is imperative that Iranian traders build up sufficient reserves of fodder corn in the next six weeks.”